Thomas Bayes
| Thomas Bayes | |
|---|---|
| |
| Personlig information | |
| Født | 1702  London |
| Død | 17. april 1761 Royal Tunbridge Wells |
| Gravsted | Bunhill Fields |
| Nationalitet |  Engelsk |
| Uddannelse og virke | |
| Uddannelsessted | University of Edinburgh |
| Medlem af | Royal Society (fra 1742) |
| Beskæftigelse | Matematiker, klerk, statistiker, filosof |
| Fagområde | Matematik, sandsynlighedsregning |
| Nomineringer og priser | |
| Udmærkelser | Fellow of the Royal Society |
| Signatur | |
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Information med symbolet  hentes fra Wikidata. Kildehenvisninger foreligger sammesteds. | |
Thomas Bayes (født ca. 1701, død 7. april 1761) var en engelsk statistiker, filosof og presbyteriansk præst, der er kendt for at have formuleret en specifik version af den læresætning, han har lagt navn til: Bayes' teorem. Bayes udgav aldrig selv det, der skulle blive hans mest berømte bedrift. I stedet blev hans noter redigeret og udgivet posthumt af Richard Price.[1]
Bayes' theorem
Uddybende artikel: Bayes' teoremBayes' løsning på et problem med invers sandsynlighed blev præsenteret i "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" (et essay til løsning af et problem i chancens doktrin), der blev læst for the Royal Society i 1763, efter Bayes' død. Richard Price stod fadder til arbejdet gennem denne præsentation, samt udgivelsen af samme i Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London året efter.[2]
I de første årtier af det 18. århundrede blev mange problemer, omhandlende sandsynligheden af bestemte begivenheder under specifikke omstændigheder, løst. Eksempelvis: Når man kender antallet af sorte og hvide kugler i en urne, hvad er da sandsynligheden for at trække en sort kugle? Eller det modsatte: Når man kender antallet af af kugler der er blevet udtrukket, hvad kan man da sige om antallet af sorte og hvide kugler i urnen? Sådanne problemer kaldes undertiden for problemer med invers sandsynlighed.
Referencer
- ^ McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch. (2011).
- ^ Edwards, A. W. G. "Commentary on the Arguments of Thomas Bayes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Vol. 5, No. 2 (1978), pp. 116–118; retrieved 6 August 2011
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Portrait of an unknown 19th-century Presbyterian clergyman.
Identified as Thomas Bayes (d. 1761) in Terence O'Donnell, History of Life Insurance in Its Formative Years (Chicago: American Conservation Co:, 1936), p. 335 (caption "Rev. T. Bayes: Improver of the Columnar Method developed by Barrett.")
Again reprinted in Stephen M. Stigler, Springer Statistics Calendar 1981 (Springer-Verlag, New York, 1980).
A challenge "Who Is this gentleman? When and where was he born?" was published in IMS Bulletin, Vol. 17, No. 1, January/February 1988, page 49. The results were published in IMS Bulletin, Vol. 17 (1988), No. 3, pp. 276–278.[1]
David R. Bellhouse of University of Western Ontario in a reply argued that the man depicted being Thomas Bayes is unlikely, as
- "The first thing to note in this picture is the apparent absence of a wig, or if a wig is present, it is definitely the wrong style for the period. [...] The second thing to note is that Bayes appears to be wearing a clerical gown like his father or a larger frock coat with a high collar [...] the gown is not in style for Bayes's generation and the frock coat with a large collar is definitely anachronistic. [...] For reference, I have used C. Willett Cunnington and P. Cunnington, Handbook of English Costume in the Eighteenth Century, pub. Faber & Faber, London, 1964."
Bellhouse compared pictures of other nonconformist ministers, that of Thomas Bayes' father Joshua Bayes (d. 1746), and that of Richard Price (1776).
Compare File:Philip Doddridge.jpg for the portrait of a nonconformist minister of Thomas Bayes' generation (dated 1751).
Stephen M. Stigler of University of Chicago, USA, wrote that it is possible that O'Donnell (1936) "got the picture from some (perhaps 19th century) source where it was identified as Bayes. The question would then be: 'What is that source, and what was that source’s source?' So little is said of Bayes in O’Donnell’s book that it is extremely implausible that he would choose him (and Thomas Simpson, who is also depicted in a similar style) as the subject for an invented picture."